UFC 289 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush: Back Ex

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Charles Oliveira

The UFC 289 co-main event features potential fireworks with Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush.

Oliveira, who's the former lightweight champion, is coming off a disappointing loss to Islam Makhachev last October and is looking to get back into the title picture with a potential victory here.

But to get that win, Oliveira will first have to get past a dangerous contender in Dariush.

Dariush is riding an impressive eight-fight winning streak and could easily be fighting for the title if he fit the mold of fighter whom the UFC usually likes to market.

That said, the promotion did promise Dariush a title shot should he get past Oliveira this weekend, sweetening the proverbial pot.

Although part of me hates that these two have to tangle, Oliveira and Dariush should be all action from a stylistic perspective.

Both men are inherent pressure fighters, but Oliveira is the man who will likely take the lead.

An offensive marauder who likes to Thai march behind a high guard, Oliveria is a difficult dynamo to deal with on the feet. From catch-and-pitch counters to brutal front teeps to the body, the 33-year-old Brazilian can be a lot for anyone when he's feeling in stride.

Given Oliveira's sensory style, his game doesn't change too drastically when facing a southpaw.

• Charles Oliveira, who faces Beneil Dariush, is 4-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws (W: Miller, Brookins, Teymur, Poirier; L: Miller, Makhachev)

Offensively, he shows out-side foot awareness, isn't afraid to prod/play with his lead hand & does his best work off rear body attacks: pic.twitter.com/SlUsxkydbD

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) June 8, 2023

Oliveira still prefers to strike off contact and will take any excuse to enter into clinch space (which will likely be a key junction on Saturday night).

Not only does "Do Bronx" offer violent elbows and knees in closed quarters, but the former champ is also savvy about parlaying these posture-breaking shots into front-choke opportunities.

No matter the position, Oliveira is deadly from most front-headlock variations and will attack with interweaving submission attempts as if he's firing them off from an M60 machine gun.

That said, Oliveira will be up against another high-level grappling ace in Dariush.

Stepping onto the scene as an accoladed jiu-jitsu athlete, Dariush quickly developed his striking game under the care of the legendary Rafael Cordeiro.

A former fighter and coach who shares a lineage with Oliveira's Chute Boxe team, Cordeiro has a knack for turning submission grapplers into pressuring strikers (e.g. Rafael dos Anjos, Marvin Vettori).

Dariush has all the striking staples that a southpaw should never leave home without, particularly a devastating body kick.

The Iranian-born fighter has also gotten better at counterstriking over the years, which could serve him well here.

Despite opening at practically pick’em odds, public money has steadily been trickling in on the Dariush side of the equation.

Considering that I can be quoted as calling Dariush a potentially bad matchup for Olveira in the past, I don't blame anyone for backing the crusading contender in this spot.

Not only does Dariush have the grappling chops to stymie Do Bronx on the mat, but the 34-year-old southpaw's counters and kicks will be very live at range.

#TheSouthpawReport for Oliveira cont…

• Oliveira, like others I’ve covered in these threads, also likes rear front kick/knee entries to close the open stance, but lifting entries are extra dangerous against SP counters, as SP 2-3s (as well as body kicks) are his common culprit pic.twitter.com/nFQEKOzEJb

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) June 8, 2023

Nevertheless, I still find myself leaning the other way after going back to watch some tape on Dariush.

Aside from the fact that he, too, can be hurt by similar shots, I also noticed that Dariush – in both victory and defeat – tends to give some bad positions to good grapplers.

It may have cost Dariush only once thus far in his career, but he can't get too confident or careless against the UFC's all-time submissions leader.

In fact, Dariush has the propensity to shoot takedowns with his head sagging off to his right side, which feeds right into Oliveira's preferred kill zone. Every single one of Oliveira's front-choke finishes is fed from his left side.

This doesn't ensure Olveira a victory this weekend, but it's more than enough for me to take a shot on him at plus money.

At prices like these, it's pick a side and ride.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira moneyline (+125 at Ceasers)

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